Hockey Prophets

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Seth JarvisPortland vs Spokane (WHL)10/25/2019Not getting enough quality ice time because the Winterhawks keep taking penalties.

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Brian Fogarty

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#25: New York Islanders

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 23

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 1

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 0

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 130th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Cole Eiserman (27th)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Jesse Pulkinnen (64th)

System Score: 2

 

New York Islanders General Manager Lou Lamoriello has been in charge since the summer of 2018, and in that time he has had four first round picks, three of which were in the 2018 (Oliver Wahlstrom 11th overall, Noah Dobson 12th overall) and 2019 (Simon Holmstrom 23rd overall) drafts. Those three players have played in 635 NHL games thus far, but the remaining 31 players selected by the Islanders from 2018-2023 have played only a total of 68 NHL game--51 of those games have been played by Sam Bolduc. Wahlstrom, Dobson and Holmstrom comprise 90% of NHL games-played success from all of those draft years.   

It was not until the recent 2024 draft that the Islanders would have another chance at a first-round pick, and in this case they selected arguably the best pure goal scorer of the draft class in Cole Eiserman. Despite having made a lot of mid- and later-round picks, the Islanders prospect system has seen relatively little success, and without the addition of Eiserman and Pulkinnen in the most recent draft, the system would be ranked even lower than 25th among NHL prospect pools.

 
Brian Fogarty

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#26: Ottawa Senators

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 30

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 0

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 1

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 93rd

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Xavier Bourgault (73rd)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Carter Yakemchuk (12th)

System Score: 2

 

Ottawa has been a team searching for an identity for several seasons. They have been a team that is simultaneously trying to build through the draft while also attempting to be a relevant playoff challenger.  The Senators have had great success with their top-end draft picks over the past several years, drafting four-time (so far) All-Star Brady Tkachuk with the fourth overall pick in 2018 and Tim Stutzle (247 points in 285 NHL games) third overall, defenseman Jake Sanderson 5th overall (70 points in 156 NHL games) and center Ridley Greigh 28th overall in 2020. Ottawa has picked two other times in the first round since 2108, selecting defenseman Lassi Thomson 19th overall in 2019 and Tyler Boucher 10th overall in 2021. Niether of those two players have yet seen NHL success. Thomson saw a handful of NHL games in 2021-2022, but since then has played almost exclusively in the AHL. Boucher has bounced around quite a bit, from the US Team development program, to Boston University, to the OHL and last year played in the AHL. He has not found scoring success yet at any level, and he still has a long way to go before becoming a NHLer.

 
Brian Fogarty

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#27: Vegas Golden Knights

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 22

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 1

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 0

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 136th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Trevor Connelly (19th)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Arttu Karki (67th)

System Score: 2

 

The first NHL for the Vegas franchise was in 2017, in which the Golden Knights held three first-round picks and two seconds. The team hit on four of the five picks, who have combined for a total of over 1,100 NHL games so far. Unfortunately, only Nic Hague (te 6'6 defenseman they selected 34th) plays for the Golden Knights. Instead, the Vegas front office used the blue chip prospects to trade players the team thought could help generate immediate success. Out were Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki and Eric Brannstrom. In came Patrick Nolan, Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone.

Since that initial draft success, Vegas has been able to pick in the first round of five of the subsequent seven drafts. Only one of those picks--Peyton Krebs, 17th overall in 2019--has become an NHL player, but like the top picks in 2017, Vegas used Krebs as a part of a deal to bring in experienced help. In this case, Krebs was moved to Buffalo in part of a deal that brought back Jack Eichel. 

However, despite having moved multiple mid-round picks in recent years which has left the prospect pool rather shallow (only 22 currently-ranked prospects is fewer than all but one other team), but maintaining top-end picks has allowed the system to have some true quality players at the top of the system.

Brian Fogarty

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#28: Toronto Maple Leafs

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 32

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 0

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 1

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 155th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Minten Fraser (75th)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Ben Danford (32nd)

System Score: 1.5

 

The recent success of the Toronto Maple Leafs and their playoff runs have been chronicled in depth, but what has been most interesting from a prospect perspective has been their ability to retain top-round draft picks. Since 2018 the Leafs have used ten top-65 draft picks, including four first-round picks. Tragically, one of those picks, Russian prospect Rodion Amirov, died in August 2023 after a battle with brain cancer. The top two Toronto drafts picks from the 2018 draft are also no longer in the Toronto system. Rasmus Sandin (29th overall) was traded to Washington and Sean Durzi (52nd overall) was traded to Los Angeles, both for more experienced help on the troubled Maple Leafs blue line. Two other top picks from recent years have graduated as full- or near full-time NHL players in the Toronto lineup. Nic Robertson has played 87 NHL games, most of them last season. After struggling to earn playing time amongst the well-stocked top lines in Toronto and fighting some injury issues, Robertson looks to have finally gotten a permanent role. Matthew Knies has had better early success after two NCAA seasons. He played 80 games for the Leafs last year, with 15 goals and 20 assists and a solid physical game.

Brian Fogarty

Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings

#29: Vancouver Canucks

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Number of Ranked Prospects: 28

Number of Forwards in the Top 50: 0

Number of Defensemen in the Top 50: 1

Average Rank of Top 10 Prospects in Pool: 145th

Top Forward Prospect in The System: Anthony Romani (56th)

Top Defenseman Prospect in The System: Tom Willander (6th)

System Score: 1.5

 

Vancouver's prospect system is caught in a vortex of a lack of top-end draft picks in recent years and the graduation of top prospects from earlier drafts like all-world defenseman Quinn Hughes and promising lightweight winger Nils Hoglander. The Canucks recently traded their 10th overall draft pick from the 2019 draft Vasili Podkolzin--who has scored just 35 points in 137 NHL games--for a fourth-round pick, but Vancouver's more recent first-round selections appear to be on the cusp of NHL play and should soon supplement the nascent Stanley Cup challenger.

In the 2024 draft, Vancouver did not make a selection until their 93rd-overall pick of forward Melvin Fernstrom, but they also managed to add overage forward Anthony Romani with a sixth-round pick who is coming off a huge, breakout year for North Bay in the OHL. 

  1. Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings - TPA
  2. Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings - FLA
  3. Top Prospects: The NHL System Rankings - BOS

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